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The value of very long instrumental data series

October 11, 2016

Climate Etc.

by Alan Longhurst

Because the climate change science community habitually concentrates attention on surface data from a very short recent period – nominally a little more than 100 years – it would be very interesting to know how the pattern habitually derived from these data compares with longer data archives that have been processed independently by the observing nations.

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Solar variability and the Earth’s climate

October 8, 2016

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Andy May

According to Javier and the IPCC, total solar radiation output varies little, less than 0.1%. This is only 0.7 to 1.4 Watts/m2 compared to an IPCC anthropogenic effect estimate of 2.3 Watts/m2. They believe it has a small effect on the Earth’s climate. Others, like Abdussamatov, think solar output is more variable, perhaps varying 3 Watts/m2 (their Figure 3). Other variable stars, similar to the sun, seem to have 3% dimming in their minima, which is certainly significant. Both of the latter two examples are larger than the IPCC estimate of man’s influence. We don’t want to get any further into this debate here other than to note the IPCC may be significantly underestimating the effect of solar and ocean cycles in their models. The key point is we don’t know what drives the Earth’s climate. There are a bewildering…

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James Lovelock on Climate Prediction: “I’ve grown up a bit since then.”

October 7, 2016

Watts Up With That?

A 2005 photograph of James Lovelock, scientist and author best known for the Gaia hypothesis. A 2005 photograph of James Lovelock, scientist and author best known for the Gaia hypothesis. By The original uploader was Bruno Comby at English Wikipedia – Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons., CC BY-SA 1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3873472

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

h/t RichardJames Lovelock, inventor of the Gaia hypothesis which underpins much of modern environmentalism, now thinks global warming is a religion. He also points out Singapore, one of the warmest cities in the world, is also one of the most desirable places to live.

What has changed dramatically, however, is his position on climate change. He now says: “Anyone who tries to predict more than five to 10 years is a bit of an idiot, because so many things can change unexpectedly.” But isn’t that exactly what he did last time we met? “I know,” he grins teasingly. “But I’ve grown up a bit since…

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Australian electrical system operator orders wind farms to cut back production in wake of blackout

October 7, 2016

Watts Up With That?

Ten South Australian wind farms told to limit generation after statewide electricity blackout 

australia-vs-north-korea

http://cartoonsbyjosh.com

TEN South Australian wind farms have been ordered to limit generation in the wake of the disastrous statewide power blackout because the national electricity market operator has declared they have not performed properly.

The state’s biggest wind farm, at Snowtown, is among those which the Australian Energy Market Operator has targeted in its “management and analysis” of last Wednesday’s unprecedented power outage as it gradually restores the power network. The move will prompt further questions over whether renewable energy jeopardised electricity grid stability and triggered the cascading blackout, which started when fierce winds damaged 23 Mid North transmission towers and severed three high-voltage lines. –Paul Starick, The Advertiser, 4 October 2016

This comes on the heels of a damning report that says that the power instability of wind farms dropping out caused the grid to collapse…

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Old Tactics Revived as Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Deception Fails. An Open Letter to an Open Letter

September 24, 2016

Watts Up With That?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

Recently an Open Letter was circulated and ostensibly signed by 375 members of the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS). It is reported on the web page is arrogantly called “ResponsibleScientists.org. Use of the term in this context implies that those who do not belong are irresponsible scientists. Responsibility should go without saying.

I use the word “ostensibly” to describe the representation of the Open Letter. The initial impression is that it is a letter from the NAS. It is not! A separate sentence at the bottom of the letter explains.

The following signers of this letter do so as individual NAS members and not on behalf of the NAS itself or their Institutions.

Do we assume they obtained permission from all the members of the NAS? Were the contents approved by all members? Is this the behavior of “responsible” scientists?

The tactic…

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Chaos & Climate – Part 3: Chaos & Models

September 4, 2016

Watts Up With That?

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen

bifruct_whole“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” 

IPCC TAR WG1, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

Introduction: 

The IPCC has long recognized that the Earth’s climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system.   Unfortunately, few of those dealing in climate science – professional and citizen scientists alike – seem to grasp the full implications of this.  It is not an easy topic – not a topic on which one can read a quick primer and then dive into real world applications.     This essay is the third in a short series of essays to clarify the possible relationships between Climate and Chaos.  This is not a highly technical discussion, but a basic introduction to the subject to shed some light on  just what the IPCC might mean when it says “we…

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Svensmark publishes: Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth’s cloud cover

August 25, 2016

Watts Up With That?

From Denmark Technical University
Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth’s cloud cover

Solar variations affect the abundance of clouds in our atmosphere, a new study lead by DTU Space suggests. Large eruptions on the surface of the Sun can temporarily shield Earth from so-called cosmic rays which now appear to affect cloud formation. A team of scientists from the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space) and the Racah Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has linked large solar eruptions to changes in Earth’s cloud cover in a study based on over 25 years of satellite observations.

The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth’s atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation…

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