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New paper: How much of the global temperature change is natural?

May 17, 2015

Watts Up With That?

Holocene century-on-century changes have a standard deviation close to 1deg C, so if there is a signal due to carbon dioxide, it still has not emerged from the background noise

diceGuest essay by Philip Lloyd

A paper of mine has just appeared in Energy and Environment:

(Lloyd, Philip J. An estimate of the centennial variability of global temperatures.  Energy & Environment, 26(3), pp. 417–424 2015. DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.26.3.417

with an abstract:

“There has been widespread investigation of the drivers of changes in global temperatures. However, there has been remarkably little consideration of the magnitude of the changes to be expected over a period of a few decades or even a century. To address this question, the Holocene records from several ice cores up to 8000 years before present were examined. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data…

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