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December 29, 2013

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The current climate paradigm believed by most scientists in the field can be likened to the movement of balls on a pool table.

Figure 1. Pool balls on a level table. Response is directly proportional to applied force (double the force, double the distance). There are no “preferred” positions—every position on the table is equally attainable and probable.

The current climate paradigm is as linear and as mechanistic as that pool table. At its heart is the belief that the controlling equation for the future evolution of the climate is:

Forcing Change of 3.7 watts/metre^2 = 3°C Surface Temperature Change

This can also be written as:

∆T = λ ∆Q

where ∆Q is the change in forcing, ∆T is the change in temperature, and lambda (λ) is the climate sensitivity of 3°C / 3.7 w/m2 = 0.8 degrees C for each additional watt/m2…

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