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The Eruption Over the IPCC AR5

September 22, 2013

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

In the leaked version of the upcoming United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Chapter 1, we find the following claims regarding volcanoes.

The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for some years after volcanic eruptions. Several small eruptions have caused an RF for the years 2008−2011 of −0.10  [–0.13 to –0.07] W m–2, approximately double the 1999−2002 volcanic aerosol RF.


The observed reduction in warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced 2 trend in radiative forcing (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due 3 to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle.

Now, before I discuss these claims about volcanoes, let…

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