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Seven Years Ago, An IPCC Lead Author Exposed Critical Weaknesses of the IPCC Foretelling Tools

November 22, 2014
Featured Image -- 1087

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

NCAR’s Dr. Kevin Trenberth was a lead author of the IPCC’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports.  Near to the publication of the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report 7 years ago, Dr. Trenberth penned a blog post at Nature.com Predictions of climate—a blog post that exposed many critical weaknesses in the climate models used by the IPCC for divining the future of climate on Earth.  The post was filled with extraordinary quotes, including:

  • …none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate.
  • In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models.
  • Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors.
  • … if the…

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NCDC Grubers America, Yet Again

November 16, 2014

Originally posted on Real Science:

The experts at the National Climatic Data Center report that October was 4th warmest on record in the US, despite the fact that their own thermometers show it was 24th warmest – after 1947, 1963, 1884, 1900, 1882, 1950, 1881, 1931, 1938, 2007, 1953, 1918, 1956, 1897, 1910, 1927, 1971, 1934, 1973, 1941, 1940, 1962 and 1914

1947 and 1963 were nearly four degrees warmer.

ScreenHunter_4610 Nov. 15 18.44

They accomplished this by massively cooling the past, and warming the present. A full two degrees of data tampering!

ScreenHunter_4611 Nov. 15 18.49

The animation below shows how they completely corrupt the US temperature record, turning a century long cooling trend into a warming trend.

USHCNOctoberAdjustments

North America had the eighth highest October snow extent on record, yet NCDC claims it was fourth warmest here.

ScreenHunter_4612 Nov. 15 18.58

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

In summary, NCDC is faking numbers and lying through their teeth.

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Dr. Trenberth Redux

November 15, 2014
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Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

A couple days ago, I was given a copy of a most interesting interchange from 2011 between Dr. Kevin Trenberth and a layman asking him a question. The sender of the question recently passed it on to me. I’ve redacted the email addresses and the name of the person asking the question, but otherwise it is totally unaltered.

From: “Kevin Trenberth” <trenbert@XXXXX.edu>
To: “Dr XXXX” <xxx@xxx.xxx>
Sent: January XX, 2011 X:XX PM
Subject: Re: warming

Dear Kevin,  

Thank you for your prompt reply. I’m 62 and now semi-retired. I’d like to  bring myself up to speed on global warming, which I read is one of the great catastrophes of our time. You describe rising sea levels as being the evidence for man caused global warming. It had been my understanding that sea levels have been rising steadily for thousands of years and now at a very…

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Is the Hockey Stick Graph Dead?

November 15, 2014
Featured Image -- 1073

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Novice warmist debunks Michael Mann

Guest essay by Doug L. Hoffman

Image by Joanne Nova

Image by Joanne Nova

For those of us who have followed the climate debate for a long time, the notion that Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick graph might be dead is counter intuitive. For us, the Hockey Stick graph is central to the debate. It’s appearance in one brilliant stroke swept all discussion of the physics of climate change aside, wiped out discussion of sensitivity and natural variability, destroyed in the public’s mind any notion other than climate change was catastrophic and already upon us. Even the climate models played second fiddle to Mann’s tree ring chronology. I submit however, that the Hockey Stick is in fact dead, a symbolic (but important) final blow being struck at WUWT, not by a skeptic, but by a warmist. (Patience, I’ll get to that).

Of course Michael Mann is a major thorn in…

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Questions the Media Should Be Asking the IPCC – The Hiatus in Warming

November 13, 2014

Originally posted on Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations:

UPDATE: Jo Nova introduced her cross post Six question the media should be asking the IPCC:

It’s clear science journalists need some help. The IPCC are saying “The ocean ate my global warming” and most environment reporters just cut-n-paste this excuse — they fall for the breathtaking joules-to-the-22nd-figures  — not realizing they convert to a mere 0.07C over nearly 50 years (as if we could measure the average temperature of the global oceans to a hundredth of a degree!). Worse, the warming we do find is so small, it supports the skeptical calculations, not the IPCC’s ones. I ran a tutorial for journalists at the end of the post, and asked Bob Tisdale (author of Climate Models Fail) if he had some other questions. He did, oh boy, and here they are. Thanks to Bob.  – Jo

# # #

Joanne Nova asked me to suggest questions the…

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Seven Years Ago, An IPCC Lead Author Exposed Critical Weaknesses of the IPCC Foretelling Tools

November 13, 2014

Originally posted on Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations:

NCAR’s Dr. Kevin Trenberth was a lead author of the IPCC’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports.  Near to the publication of the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report 7 years ago, Dr. Trenberth penned a blog post at Nature.com Predictions of climate—a blog post that exposed many critical weaknesses in the climate models used by the IPCC for divining the future of climate on Earth.  The post was filled with extraordinary quotes, including:

View original 499 more words

Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips

October 29, 2014

jim:

Key quote:
“I feel your pain. Circa 2007 I felt the same way you did, and ran around turning off lights and unplugging things, feeling really uncomfortable about the carbon footprint of myself and my surroundings. But then I woke up as a scientist and realized that my belief in dangerous anthropogenic climate change was second order belief – based on the IPCC consensus. That is, I believed in the consensus without having done a real detailed assessment of my own. Then when climategate triggered me to closely examine everything, notably the IPCC’s attribution argument, I realized that the fingerprints were ‘muddy’, the climate models are running too hot, the forcing data is uncertain, no account is made for multidecadal and longer internal variability, and they have no explanation for the warming 1910-1940, the cooling 1940-1976, and the hiatus since 1998. Once you raise questions about 20th century attribution, then your angst about impacts that you think are attributable to AGW becomes much less justified.”

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

Climate depression is real.  Just ask a scientist. – Madeleine Thomas

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