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Where Was Climate Research Before Computer Models?

October 22, 2014

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball

I think, Essex and McKitrick’s Chapter, Climate Theory Versus Models and Metaphors, in their book Taken By Storm, is a very good analysis of the challenges facing climatology. They ask,

Do we have any clues at all on how to start the climb toward the summit of Mount Climate Theory? For a while in the 20th Century, it was looking good. Computers were appearing on the scene, and data were more systematically collected. Many scientists believed that putting in every more copious detail might pull off the climb. Sure, there would always be something missing, but with the aid of more data and the growing computational power, perhaps it wouldn’t matter. It didn’t before. What ultimately did happen in science surprised everyone, and it all had to do with turbulence.”

They raise the internal issue of turbulence, which is legitimate, if you assume…

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Quote of the week – massive climate FAIL by Mashable’s Andrew Freedman

October 22, 2014
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Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Wow, this is even dumber than Freedman’s story (complete with photoshopped images of airplanes in rising sea water) Quite possibly the dumbest example of ‘Tabloid Climatology’ ever from Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman a couple of years ago, which we rightfully trounced on WUWT for the sheer stupidity of the imagery that somehow, airplanes at LaGuardia would not be able to get out of the way of rising sea levels.

Get a load of this tweet from him today, replete with “conspiracy theory”:

Freedman_FAILGosh, “giant conspiracy”.

Um, Andrew, they all use the same base surface data. The Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) from NOAA’s NCDC.

For example:  http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

NASA_GHCNOr how about: http://www.climate.gov/daily-observational-data-ghcn-daily-summary-%E2%80%93-gis-data-locator-0

NOAA_GHCN

And, http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatview/outline.html

JMA_GHCN

They all agree because they only have one data source. Therefore, they are NOT independent as you claim.

Andrew, you really need to pull your head out of your ass and stop talking about conspiracy theory…

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Germany’s Unsustainable “Green” Jobs “Miracle” Collapses

October 17, 2014
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Originally posted on STOP THESE THINGS:

angry german kid

The Germans went into wind power harder and faster than anyone else – and the cost of doing so is catching up with a vengeance. The subsidies have been colossal, the impacts on the electricity market chaotic and – contrary to the purpose of the policy – CO2 emissions are rising fast (see our post here).

Some 800,000 German homes have been disconnected from the grid – victims of what is euphemistically called “fuel poverty”. In response, Germans have picked up their axes and have headed to their forests in order to improve their sense of energy security – although foresters apparently take the view that this self-help measure is nothing more than blatant timber theft (see our post here).

One justification put up by the wind industry for the social and economic chaos caused by spiralling power costs was the claim that investment in wind power would…

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The Seductiveness of Models.

October 16, 2014
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Originally posted on Pointman's:

When it comes to Global Warming (GW), great emphasis is put on what the computer models predict will happen, so let’s get some idea of what exactly a model is. We’ll do a thought experiment. This is a complex area but no maths, I promise, and I’ll pick a really really simple problem.

Imagine we’re going to build a model of the game of Snooker (or Pool) and we’ll keep it even simpler by only considering the cue ball which is hit towards one object ball. We want to be able to predict where both balls will come to rest after the impact. The physics of the situation are well understood. If the cue ball hits the object ball in the centre then the object ball will roll straight on. If the cue ball hits the object ball to the left of centre, then the object ball will deflect to…

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Another IPCC modeling failure – so THAT’s where the atmospheric methane went

October 15, 2014
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Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

IPCC_AR5_draft_fig1-7_methane

IPCC models for each assessment report vs. reality.

From Oregon State University – Scientists discover carbonate rocks are unrecognized methane sink

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Since the first undersea methane seep was discovered 30 years ago, scientists have meticulously analyzed and measured how microbes in the seafloor sediments consume the greenhouse gas methane as part of understanding how the Earth works.

The sediment-based microbes form an important methane “sink,” preventing much of the chemical from reaching the atmosphere and contributing to greenhouse gas accumulation. As a byproduct of this process, the microbes create a type of rock known as authigenic carbonate, which while interesting to scientists was not thought to be involved in the processing of methane.

That is no longer the case. A team of scientists has discovered that these authigenic carbonate rocks also contain vast amounts of active microbes that take up methane. The results of their study, which…

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Climate Science: Separating Mistakes From Malfeasance

October 12, 2014
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Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Cartoon_Climate_ScienceGuest opinion by Dr. Tim Ball

An important problem in climatology involves determining how many points are required to establish a pattern or a trend. It parallels the societal challenge, how many mistakes before a pattern or trend is identified? The societal question applies to climate science, but the line appears unclear. How many scientific mistakes separate incompetence from malfeasance? After watching the corruption of climate science for over 30 years, I believe we crossed the line with creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its procedures were established to prove the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis. This resulted in the malfeasance of eliminating or evading scientific checks and balances. The question is why is the malfeasance still not fully exposed? Why can people who were exposed and admitted their errors, continue to have credibility, at least in their own minds? Why is there no accountability?

A recent…

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Video: why renewables equal death

October 12, 2014
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Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

energy_poverty

I provide this video for informational and entertainment purposes only. I have no opinion pro or con on it. Videographer Paul Budline writes:

First, pardon the overwrought subject heading.  But I would like as many people as possible to see a 5-minute piece that I just finished.  It focuses on the unintended consequences of marchers demanding an end to fossil fuels.
It’s obviously shot on a shoestring and relies heavily on stock footage, but it’s an important topic:

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